Stock Market, Bad News is Good News

Kate Stalter
Host

00:04

Welcome to The MarketBeat Podcast. I'm your host, Kate Stalter. And in this show, we cut through the noise and give you real market insights from professional investors, traders, asset managers, and analysts, our guests put the market developments in context and give you actionable information to make you a more successful trader or investor. Let's get started.

Kate Stalter
Host

00:32

As I'm recording this, the markets are still trending lower after fed chair, Jerome Powell made comments about increasing interest rates and some pain ahead. Look, we all know markets are cyclical, but it's very easy to forget that while we are in the thick of a downturn, but markets are also discounting mechanisms. And that's one of the themes in today's interview with Michael Wang. He's the founder of Prometheus alternative investment. Michael founded Prometheus with the belief that everyone should have access to information and investment opportunities that have only been accessible to a select few. And that's from his website. And by the way, he's a veteran of some terrific companies and financial services from Steve Cohen's hedge fund to Citibank. And he has backing from Peter teal at Prometheus. So definitely a star studied roster there. So today Michael discusses ways that individual investors can invest like the pros, but also that you have some advantages that professional money managers do not.

Kate Stalter
Host

01:40

We also discuss what's going on with earning season right now, as companies pull forward bad news to get it out of the way I like the term he uses. He calls it kitchen sinking. As in throwing everything you have at an issue, right? Everything, but the kitchen sink. So to some companies and he points to Invidia and target as specific examples, they are throwing all the bad news they have into the quarterly report to get beyond it and have a clean slate going forward. We will see how that works. Given the continued downturn with concerns over inflation, rising interest rates, which are not the same thing by the way, and how investors are worried about earnings, particularly some warnings that are coming out, but Michael gives you reasons to remain calm and optimistic about the future of investments, including a very balanced look at how something as simple as an S and P index fund can play a role in your portfolio. Oh, and stick around for the end of the show, because Michael has a very generous, special offer for the MarketBeat listeners to sign up for Prometheus, which is invitation only at this point, but you can get in there. You don't wanna miss that, give a listen to today's interview with Michael Wang of Prometheus alternative investments. All right, Michael, from your perspective, you get to see a lot about what investors are doing right now, institutional investors, where from what you are seeing, how are your clientele responding to the current market conditions at this moment?

Michael Wang
Guest

03:16

That's a great question. I think broadly speaking, institutional investors are positioned fairly barely, and you could see this in hedge fund, gross exposure and net exposure data they're quite low. And you could look at, you know, the futures being short in the SMP, the lowest they've been over the past decade. And so people are positioned fairly. Bearishly given that we've had a rally and you know, most of these managers believe that it's actually a bear market rally. I E we're going to fall down again at some point in time. And I know that there is a lot of hedging into Jackson hole, which is tomorrow. So bearishly in general, I would say.

Kate Stalter
Host

03:58

Yeah. Now one thing is, of course, as you and I well known, I'm sure many of the listeners do that obviously with the market being sort of a future discounting mechanism at some point markets do traditionally historically start to turn higher even while the economic conditions may still not be so great, but the markets are looking ahead. So you don't think we're at that point yet? It sounds like.

Michael Wang
Guest

04:25

No, I actually think we are at that point, but I think that most institutional investors are not at that point. So what you said really resonates with me because I always like to tell folks that do not conflate the market today with the economy today, the market today reflects the economy that's called six months from now. And so if you've looked at what happened to market in the first half of the year, right, frankly, the markets top in late November of 2021, and it started baking at that point in time, the issues that we saw start to surface in the first half of this year, higher inflation fed, tightening, you know, economy going to the recession, et cetera. And what you saw was you've seen a lot of stocks fall 70, 80 upwards of 90%. And quite frankly, if they're not going bankrupt, they could be interesting buy opportunities.

Michael Wang
Guest

05:20

But what you started seeing in mid-June is, uh, the markets start to rally and it start to rally because, uh, for a couple reasons, number one is expectations heading into Q2 earnings were, were very low and, and the actual results have been better than what people expected in general. Um, you know, number two is, is that, uh, you actually started to see commodities start to come down and actually most commodities are in a bear market. I they've corrected over 20%. And that started, I would say in April. And then you saw obviously a CPI print that came in, uh, slightly below expectation. Now on remember on an absolute basis, CPI was still very high above 8%. Nobody thinks that's low obviously, but why do the market rally off at that? Well it's because expectations are actually higher than that. And the market started bacon peak inflation market believes that the worst of inflation is behind us. And if you think about mark the markets as a discounting mechanism, like you said before, what the market cares about, isn't the absolute number cares about the second derivative? Are things getting incrementally better or incrementally worse?

Kate Stalter
Host

06:27

Does that have something to do with this little rebound that we saw in many of the tech stocks that really got beaten down earlier this year? And we saw a number of them have, you know, pretty good rallies in the last few weeks. Does that have something to do with kind of the conditions you were laying out there? Michael?

Michael Wang
Guest

06:45

Absolutely. Uh, so what just at a very high level tech stocks are generally very sensitive to what interest rates do and they should be because they're terminal values. A lot of their value is based on their terminal value. I, the value post five years, post 10 years from now, and if their interest rates are higher, you gotta discount them by a higher rate, which means that their value today would be low and vice versa. And so, as we started to see in mid-June is, is at interest rates peaked to mid-June and they started to come down since then, you know, I'm real talk about the 10 year and as interest rates have been coming down, tech stocks have been rallying and that's what we've seen. And so certainly growth stocks, tech stocks are generally fairly sensitive to even, you know, fairly minute changes in interest rates. And then on top of that, by the way, Kate is, is that, you know, everybody in their mother sold these tech socks in the first half of the year. And so people had already sold their positions. They've already deed roast and, you know, tech ownership, you know, in 2021, 2022 was at like the 99th percentile right over the last decade. And now I think the last data I saw is probably closer to like the 30th percentile, you know? And so I E you know, people had already sold and now they're chasing,

Kate Stalter
Host

08:05

You know, as you're speaking, I pulled up the chart of kind of the ETF that I think we all know that is a proxy for the growth stocks right now, which is the arc innovation ETF, a R K K. Many of our listeners are familiar with this one. And what I'm looking at here, Michael, is that we had a 13% rally in July on that particular ETF. And then, you know, it's only less than a percentage point up so far this month, which kind of makes me think the rallies, maybe sputtering a little bit. Are you seeing that as well?

Michael Wang
Guest

08:38

Yeah. And this goes back to, if you look at this past week, it's been quite a difficult week for the markets. You start to see things that have popped up like arc come to fall back down because a lot of people start to add to their shorts positions. And again, I do think that the consensus is that they think this is a bear market rally. So that's prepare for the bear market to come again. And arc is sort of a high beta version of the markets and high quite frankly, high beta version of even tech and growth stocks. It is the own quite frankly, probably the most speculative, uh, names out there that are by far the most sensitive to moves in interest rates. And so, uh, yes.

Kate Stalter
Host

09:20

And you're right about that. I'm looking at a chart of this right now with the beta at 2.17%, and that is high . You're absolutely right. That's very high, not sure what stocks to buy and which to sell. Well, no worries. Market beat. Has you covered get the latest buy and sell ratings from wall Street's top performing most accurate and most respected research analyst. That's just one part of what you will receive as a MarketBeat all access subscriber. You'll also get MarketBeat's new trending stockless, which monitor social media chatter in real time to help you identify the next game stop or AMC before you hear about it on the news market, beat all access also features real time news market events and performance data for your stocks with the MarketBeat portfolio monitoring tool. And you can take a completely risk free trial for just $1.

Kate Stalter
Host

10:21

If you head over to the link we will put in the show notes, you'll get best in class stock research tools, performance ratings for wall street analysts, realtime newsfeed, executive support team access, all of this add free for just $1 for the first month sign up today. The link is in the show notes. Okay. So let me ask you this, Michael, what about, we've talked quite a bit here in the last few minutes about the tech sector. What are some other sectors that maybe investors should be looking at right now to navigate these current uncertain conditions at the moment? Well,

Michael Wang
Guest

10:59

It depends what your view is. If you believe that we are headed into, if you believe that we, this is a beer market rally, and we're, you know, the markets are gonna continue to go down and that's your worldview, then quite frankly, you probably wanna be in cash. You know, cash is the best sort of asset to be in when you all have just a lot of uncertainty, you know, out there now. However, if your view is, Hey, you know, we've probably likely seen the worst of this downdraft and it's behind us. And at the bottom was in, uh, mid-June, there's a lot of stocks that you could look at and all quite frankly, in every single sector. And it's just, and I always re do your diligence, whatever it is that makes you the most comfortable and generally for the broader retail environment, for the broader retail, uh, traders out there, it generally are tech names, and they're generally consumer names, things that them, um, they can understand and they could buy their product. They maybe use their product, et cetera. So do your diligence now again, I do, you know, it seems most sectors are actually down quite a bit. And you know, the one sector that actually outperformed drastically in the first half of the year was energy and commodities, and now they've come back down, you know? And so it really depends on your worldview and your macro view, and then from there drill down. So,

Kate Stalter
Host

12:18

And you know, what's tough about that is because you're kind of presenting two very different views. And it's almost the way I think about that. This is almost a binary thing, right? You're either gonna be right or wrong. So you're either going to invest more or go into cash. But I guess there is a middle ground isn't there. If investors kind of wanna hedge a little bit, how would they go about that?

Michael Wang
Guest

12:39

Well, yeah, I mean, you don't have to be all in at all times, right? If you want to leg in, right, maybe there's still a lot of uncertainty that you feel and you want to leg in, you don't have to put a hundred percent of your cash in stocks right away, maybe start with 25% and 50% and work your way up as you feel more comfortable as there's a bit more certainty in what the fed is gonna do, et cetera, etcetera. And then the other way is by hedging your portfolio by shorting ETS or shorting single name stocks. Now that is a very different beast, uh, than just buying long stock. And the reason why is that theoretically there's unlimited downside, IE, a stock can only go to zero. IE can lose a hundred percent, but a short, as we've seen with things like game stock in early 2021, they could go up 300, 400, 500, 700%. And so be careful on the short side, unless you're very experienced is, is what I would say. You know, if you're uncertain, if you're scared of the environment, you know, cash is your best friend there.

Kate Stalter
Host

13:41

So what are you seeing in terms of how the institutional managers are responding? You mentioned say some consumer names, is that a sector you're seeing folks gravitate towards? Are they looking for maybe bargain prices and some other beaten down sectors? What are you seeing right now among the pros

Michael Wang
Guest

14:00

What's been very topical are, uh, you know, generally tech is always very topical, right? Because you have the Fang names are always topical amongst both retail and institutional investors, cuz they're extraordinary liquid. And so if you run a 10 billion fund, you can buy a billion dollars of, you know, Netflix or Facebook or Amazon in a heartbeat. So those are very topical and also consumer names as well. But I would say that another sort of sub-sector within technology that's uh, been a very topical, has been semiconductor space. Semiconductor space used to be a space where just covered by a small amount of people. But the reality is, is now semiconductors actually go into everything, your toaster oven, your microwave, your cars, et cetera. And so it's sort a reflection of what's going on in a broader cyclical economy. And what you saw with semiconductor earnings in over Q2 is that a lot of these companies actually missed and or guided below the street sometimes.

Michael Wang
Guest

15:01

Well below the street, the video, you know, last night, for instance, bad numbers. However, what did the video do today? It was up, you know, it was down four, 5% when they first report after hours and it closed up, uh, almost 4% today. So Chris says, why is that? Well it's because expectations were very, very low heading into these earnings and what investors and institution investors wanna see is they wanna see that they actually wanted these companies to guide well below the street so that they can feel comfortable owning it, knowing that, Hey, they threw the kitchen sink at. They're not gonna have to guide down again the falling quarter, for instance,

Kate Stalter
Host

15:39

You know, that makes sense. So they're putting it all. They're pulling it forward all into this quarter. Is that what you're saying?

Michael Wang
Guest

15:43

Exactly. And now, you know, all is clear. They just kitchen sink, the numbers expectations have come down from the street. And so I could own it again, knowing that, Hey, they could probably beat those earnings that they just and sink now, you know,

Kate Stalter
Host

15:58

I think target did something similar from the retail sector. I think they kind of said, we're just getting a lot of the bad news over right now.

Michael Wang
Guest

16:05

Yes. Because what they had just like many other retailers is they had an inventory overhang issue. You know, what's funny with a lot of these retailers is, is that, and this is just retailers, but uh, companies like zoom or companies like, you know, Peloton consumer products where you had this sort of huge increase in demand that stemmed from the pandemic. And some of these company management teams thought this was not just a one time event, but there's a structural shift in demand for these. No, they were pull for its, you know, if you were ever gonna buy a Peloton bike, you would've bought it during the pandemic. And what happened is they overproduced. And so, um, you know, Peloton really reported horrible numbers today and there's really a question mark of whether they were gonna survive or now in fact, the stock actually ended down 18%.

Michael Wang
Guest

16:52

Didn't recover at all. You know? And in target, as you mentioned, what was interesting is, is that you're absolutely right. What they did was they knew they had all this inventory and what they're doing is they're taking a big charge on it and they're discounting all of their, you know, a lot of this inventory so that they could get rid of it and start the following quarter, start to future a new, so kitchen sinking it, you know, bad numbers. That's fine that we need to get clear this excess inventory. And, and the video did the same thing with, with semiconductors is, is that they have a new product coming up and heading into the launch of that new product. They want to clear their old inventory. And so what they've been doing again, discounting, and, uh, so you're seeing that across multiple different industries, but to your more broader point, what do investors wanna see? They want to see expectations reset. They know that the economy's bad. And so they want you to clear the decks as a management team before they step, uh, back into their stock.

Kate Stalter
Host

17:49

Right. Makes perfect sense.

Michael Wang
Guest

17:51

Bad news is good news.

Kate Stalter
Host

17:53

Yeah, that's right. Especially cuz it's all kind of piled up now and I know that that affects sentiment as well. And you kind of alluded to some of that too, that you're seeing the institutional investors seem to have a very negative sentiment at this time, which will eventually turn around, won't it?

Michael Wang
Guest

18:11

Yes, absolutely. You know, it may turn around after market goes up another 20% or so, but certainly it will turn around and at some point in time, right.

Kate Stalter
Host

18:22

When people aren't looking this, I mean, I remember Michael back in 2009, I remember it was a full year or two later. People still did not believe the market was in a rally. It's like they never looked at it. They didn't realize how much, if they remained in cash, how much they missed out by sitting out, you know, 2009, 20 10, 20, you know, the first half of 2011. Anyway,

Michael Wang
Guest

18:45

It goes back to the original they were talking about is, is that do not conflate the market with the current economy because when did the market bottom in on bottom in March of oh nine that we were still in a restriction throughout the entirety of oh nine, right? Or even look at 2020, the market, uh, really bottom in April, remember in Q2, you know, GDP print was like, what down 25% or something like that. Right. So, so I E the economic data was still bad, but the market started a price in the recovery and it always ahead of the game. And that is perhaps what we're seeing right now that the bottom that we saw in June remains to be seen. Obviously there's still a lot of uncertainty. We'll have to see what happens with the fed and interest rates. Cuz you know, if I were to give your audience, you know, to one piece of thought is, is the most important thing for any asset prices is what the fed does is the number one thing. So pay attention to what the fed does. So if they're taking their breaks off the pedal, in terms of hiking, that's obviously positive for markets and then vice versa.

Kate Stalter
Host

19:51

So yeah, that's a whole other thing what they're doing. And the whole game of fed watching has really heated up in the last few years, hasn't it?

Michael Wang
Guest

19:59

Yeah. You know, the, these institutional folks, they pay attention to every single word that comes out of, you know, power's mouth and every single qualifying word that is in the, uh, you know, fed minutes. And so they watch yeah. And listen to each word like a Hawk. And so even something that a layperson would be like, whatever, he sounds exact same as he did the last time he spoke, well, no, he changed the word. You know, he took out the word transient or something like that, you know? And it's like, oh my God, right. World starts to blow up. Yeah. Yeah.

Kate Stalter
Host

20:30

They parsed it so closely. I know. It's very interesting. Well, let me ask you this, because again, coming back to the fact of the different types of investors that you work with there at Prometheus, what are the best practices from the pros? You know, you hear a lot about that individual investors should sort of follow in the footsteps of the pros, but you know, the truth is retail. Investors can be a lot more nimble. You can scale in and out of a position like that. You don't need to do it over weeks or months, but on the other hand, individuals can be more emotion driven and hunch driven. So what do you see that some best practices are that maybe individual investors can learn from?

Michael Wang
Guest

21:10

Yeah, number one is do your own homework, don't follow blindly, another retail investor or even another pro, quite frankly. You know, because again, the pro could be saying one thing, but doing something else entirely different, you know, you do see, you do get 13 F filings, but on a quarterly basis, right? So you don't know what the pro is doing with his own fund in between the quarter or whether he's even short of stock. He was long, you know, the previous quarter. So number one, absolutely important to do your own homework. What you don't want to do is go on Reddit and wall street bet and Yolo your company into like a mean stock, right? Because you're gonna get in after it's already gone up 300% and, and you know, you may lose a lot of money. This is what, that's the majority of the cases for those got into bed bath and beyond over the last few weeks, right?

Michael Wang
Guest

22:04

It is the exception when you have Ryan Cohen, who's in it basically a quasi insider make money. But for the vast majority of folks who get involved, they usually come in at the peak and they're left, usually left holding the bag after a stock falls. So that's number one. Number two is, you know, think about a process. You know, the pros are all about a process, you know, a processor, how I source ideas, how I filter through ideas and screen for ideas, how I diligencey ideas, you know, looking at the 10 Q 10 Ks, uh, reviewing the research reports, reviewing the last three quarter earnings transcripts, stuff like that, and come up with a framework for what you think this company is worth. You know, here's my upside. I think there's 50% upside in stock, X, Y, Z, but with my analysis, you know, because it's never traded below 10 times earnings, if you do 10 times, my worst case scenario, there's 20% downside, you know? Okay, well, you know that up 30 up 40 versus a down 20, is that good enough first reward for you? If so, you know, size the idea accordingly and, and continue monitoring to the idea as well. So process is very important in falling a process that works for you, whatever that process is,

Kate Stalter
Host

23:21

Isn't that a little difficult for most retail investors though. It's time consuming it kind, nowhere to do your research. I mean, it seems to me that that's people can, yeah. That can trip you up, right?

Michael Wang
Guest

23:33

Yeah. I mean, listen, if you have a full-time job, you know, it's okay to dabble, you know, Rob an account at, at a Charles Schwab account. But if you're doing, uh, surgeries all day long as a doctor, you're best, best putting most your capital worth a professional that, that does this on a daily basis, messaging is a full-time job. You know, I don't do my own, um, you know, dental work. I do dental, you know, about drill and drill myself, right? It's same thing, you know, just because investing is accessible to you doesn't mean that you should be, uh, doing it yourself. There is help that you get in quite frankly, this is what Prometheus is built for. Built with the purpose of two missions. Number one is providing financial literacy to the public, the right way to invest. And there, ain't no better way to learn about investing and directly from some of the best and invest, uh, some of the best investors world, these pros that are running the hedge funds, venture funds, private equity funds, they're on our platform and they're posting realtime commentary, high quality commentary, you know, and then, uh, number two is access.

Michael Wang
Guest

24:36

We want provide people with access to the hedge funds, the private equity funds of venture funds that, you know, the retail public haven't had access to before. And so find good quality managers that you've built trust in. And, you know, those are probably a better way. That's probably a better way to invest in trying to do it yourself if you don't have any investment experience.

Kate Stalter
Host

24:57

Yeah. And also to keep in mind your goals, your time horizon, your risk tolerance. I mean, I feel like that gets left out of the conversation so often, but you and I both know how important that is, right?

Michael Wang
Guest

25:08

A hundred percent and your time horizons. One of the biggest edges that a retail trader has that an institutional fund does not have is that is time horizon. You know, one of the last remaining edges out there is time arbitrage. You know, if you hold the S and P 500 long enough, you will make money. You know, you will, you could buy it today. You could buy it today. You could buy it tomorrow. You don't have to time the markets. Right? However, institutional fund managers, they gotta report monthly. Sometimes they report weekly, which means that they have to manage to the short term. They don't have the luxury of just hoarding on and hoping that things recover, right, because they have to produce monthly results for their clients. Their clients are gonna pull money. And that's a big advantage quite frankly, that the retail investors have.

Michael Wang
Guest

25:53

So if you can find whether, I mean, I was the S P Y you know, the, the ETF for the S P that's a phenomenal product basically cost you nothing next to nothing. And as long as you get, hold enough, you will compound at a nice rate of return. Okay. Here's the problem though, is, is that, you know, as you said before, retail, and not just retail professional investors, myself include, there's always emotions evolve when you're losing money or making money at any given point in time. And so what tends to happen, although I think the stat was something like this, where the S and PS KD at let's call it, you know, 12% over the last, you know, multiple decades at that same point in time, the average retail investor has GED at 2%. And why is that? Well, it's because they're buying the market at the top and then they're selling at the bottom. But so that's why, you know, stick with it, find whether it's a spies or a great company like apple or Amazon. Those are things that, you know, you could hold onto for a very long time, Microsoft, those type of companies and ignore the daily relative. Try not to look at your statement every day, every week or even every month, you know, mm-hmm,

Kate Stalter
Host

27:02

, I agree. That's what gets people tripped up completely. I've known plenty of people who did that. They were checking every day and it's like, come on. You're just gonna make yourself crazy. If you do that, ,

Michael Wang
Guest

27:11

You know? Yes, yes. Because the reality is just half the time you're gonna be losing money and the other half you'll be making money. Right.

Kate Stalter
Host

27:18

Yeah.

Michael Wang
Guest

27:19

You know? Um, and that's the reality

Kate Stalter
Host

27:20

Of it. Yeah. And you're right. I mean, Des spy, I've said this before, too, Michael, over time, it goes up, you just gotta be patient that's exactly right.

Michael Wang
Guest

27:28

Exactly. The spies, if you want more tech exposure to the QS, triple QS, Q QQ, if you want small cap exposure, the I dubs IWM. These are great, great ETF products. Yeah.

Kate Stalter
Host

27:40

You've given us a little bit of information about Prometheus and what you do. If the listeners are interested in learning more, getting in touch, how do they find you?

Michael Wang
Guest

27:49

Absolutely. You can go to www dot Prometheus alt, a lts.com, and you can find out more information of Prometheus there, what it is. It's a social marketplace for alternative funds. So on the social side of things, you can get real time insights engage with, uh, these pros. And then the marketplace is a marketplace to shop for hedge funds, venture funds, private equity, et cetera. Now it is invite only right now, however, for your listeners, uh, they can create a free account it's entirely free, uh, with the code bird B I R D. They could create a free count and start engaging on the platform. So, and get early access.

Kate Stalter
Host

28:29

Very generous of you, Michael. Really appreciate that. And I know our listeners will as well. Hey, thank you so, so much, really great insights today, and I've enjoyed the conversation and we will certainly put that link that you just gave into the show notes.

Michael Wang
Guest

28:43

Great. Thank you so much. Real pleasure.

Kate Stalter
Host

28:48

Thanks

Kate Stalter
Host

28:49

Again for listening to The MarketBeat Podcast, do not forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, anywhere else, you get your Podcasts. And you'll also find us on marketbeat.com. If you enjoy the content here, please give us a five star review. So others can also find all the great interviews and market insights that we bring to you each week. Also, did you know that MarketBeat has a YouTube channel? We sure do. The Podcasts are there as well as tips for getting the most out of MarketBeat and becoming as always a better investor or trader.

Company	MarketRank™	Current Price	Price Change	Dividend Yield	P/E Ratio	Consensus Rating	Consensus Price Target
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)	N/A	$40.47	-0.3%	1.93%	N/A	N/A	N/A
NVIDIA (NVDA)	3.3757 of 5 stars	$136.36	-0.1%	0.12%	44.71	Moderate Buy	$218.85
Target (TGT)	2.9982 of 5 stars	$162.50	-1.3%	2.66%	18.47	Moderate Buy	$193.42
Zoom Video Communications (ZM)	3.0475 of 5 stars	$80.33	-0.6%	N/A	24.87	Hold	$139.58
Peloton Interactive (PTON)	2.6796 of 5 stars	$8.99	-4.8%	N/A	-1.05	Hold	$33.30
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)	0 of 5 stars	A$0.00	-100.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)	N/A	$294.87	-0.1%	0.63%	N/A	N/A	N/A

Stock Market, Bad News is Good News

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Michael Wang, Guest

Founder, Prometheus Alternative Investments

Kate Stalter, Host

MarketBeat Contributor

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